Monday, 10 October 2011

Aguero A Big Doubt For Villa

Manchester Evening News - Sergio Aguero A Big Doubt For Villa Showdown
Sergio Aguero is losing his fight to be fit for City’s clash at home to Aston Villa on Saturday.

The Blues striker has been ruled out of Argentina’s World Cup qualifier against Venezuela tomorrow night, with the adductor strain which he picked up during the 4-0 win at Blackburn last week.

Aguero joined up with the Argentina squad after picking up the injury, and was initially optimistic that he would at least be fit for this week’s game.

But the player, expected to fly back to Manchester on Wednesday, could even face a race to get fit for the Manchester derby a week on Sunday.

Damn it - I was quite confident the 14 day break would be enough, but it doesn't sound like Aguero will be risked this weekend with the Manchester derby the following week. I hold him at a £4million discount but - sitting down in in 10,000th place - I'm not sure I want to take any definite zeros, and buying him back at 10ish isn't too much of a hit when you need points now.

If I did make the decision to drop him, I might bring Dzeko in if it looks like Mancini has forgiven him, although Gervinho could be interesting if I can't stretch to Van Persie. What are your thoughts? Will you hang on to him @6 if he's only set to miss one game? Or have you already sold him? If so, who have you chosen to replace him with?

Cheers,
AM

20 comments:

Datiger said...

Many of us have to thinker on our teams again.
Hang on or get someone else?
i think i'm willing to take a 0!
First?

jukebox said...

Holding @6 should be good reason to keep.

I'm holding him @8ish :(

Papa Bear said...

I am too far down in the standings to be taking zero...dzeko here i come

Musteng said...

i will hold him for zero

Stephen said...

I made the mistake of dropping Aguero amid rumors of rotation. While I am in a fight for top spot in my private league (Now sitting 3rd). I think that I have to hold him now unless the injury is going to become multiple weeks and he for sure will not play this weekend. I am holding on....

Bitsketchy said...

Hi AM, as you know, I've been working through the stats over the last few weeks and I've started to view a definite zero and a retained discount slightly differently. If we work in the idea that you keep Aguero at approx 6.5 then your remaining players will have to score that much over their costs to "finance" the zero. That's an additional .65 points each so not much at all. However, if you changed players and the replacement scores 10 then you now have 16 points to make up. When you compare an effective 16 point loss against a 4m buy back the logic states that you have to let him go. There is a point however if your holding a player for 10 and he'll cost 20 to buy back that it's a far tougher call but logic dictates that and discount under about 6 can be overcome with the correct replacement.....

Akilesh 'Chelsea' Radhakrishnan said...

I'll have to get the replacement spot on to justfy dropping him at 6.5. It is a risk I'm not willing to take.

For one, this makes Samir Nasri a sure starter and I'm looking to find some way to get him in along with Silva into my midfield, but Aguero stays. He's been absolute gold, cheap price and crazy points. He's allowed me to afford high-priced luxuries like VDV and Hart, and he'll stay for this reason.

Akilesh 'Chelsea' Radhakrishnan said...

BTW, my team already has Gervinho and Sturridge (before his brace), so if I were to drop Aguero, who should I replace him with?

ahmadkhairulnizar said...

whoa.. unfortunately... this week will be the 2nd round of Blog League right?? so, this situation will give us more headache..

DMC said...

For those considering dropping Aguero, Franco Di Santo could be a good pick this week (home to Bolton).

Bitsketchy said...

Oh AM, forgot three things, first I meant 16.5 points and not 16, I also meant to point out that my argument works on the concept of players scoring their points value. Lastly, and most importantly, only drop if you're absolutely sure they won't play - I've dropped players at a discount of 4 before for the preferred sub only to find the sub doesn't play and the player you dropped recovers to score a hat-trick leaving you 8 points from the price you sold them for....

Ian Sanderson said...

test

sidewinder said...

Can Dzeko play 4 games in 12 days? If Mario is passed fit i think he'll play as a lone striker against Villa with Dzeko rest for the Villareal game.

mrtwig said...

I don't know whether I will drop or keep at the moment...
I would urge everyone not to jump the gun and to wait for confirmed team news later in the week...

If he is out, I don't care about the discount, he is dropped...

I have enough problem with players who AREN'T out getting zeros (Rooney, Young etc last week!) never mind taking a planned zero at this stage in the season...

As AM says, if he has a good match up when he is back fit then just pick him...

But I would personally advise not to make any decisions until later in the week - you don't need to change your team until Saturday so use the time.

Ian Sanderson said...

Sorry about the 'test' post earlier, I have been unable to post anything for 2weeks; something to do with Internet Explorer & caches, but seems to have corrected itself.
I've had loads of points to make but can't remember any now.
On the Aguero debate if he's out for 1 game I would keep at 6.xx but not at 8.xx (I hold at 8.xx).

Bitsketchy said...

Looking at the figures I think that DMC is absolutely right, Wigan at home to a Bolton team who look like a mix between a limp piece of lettuce and a sieve? He should easily return his value - he can definitely scor3 big as we saw with his 36.5 in week 3. Out of 7 games he's returned his value 3 times and this game seems far easier......

Bitsketchy said...

Hi AM,

I was just thinking about the concept of dropping a player instead of taking a zero and off the back of that, the additional ROI needed to fund it and I put together some interesting info on forwards - is there anyway of posting a chart? It shows the probability of getting back your investment as the price of a player goes up. Believe it or not you've got over a 20% chance of scoring zero or less with any given forward and if you spent big and invested your money in a Rooney or Van Persie you would only have a 5% chance (19-1) of returning their value.....

The sweet spot seems to be anything up to 11.5 points after which you have less than a 1 in 5 chance of successfully returning their value....

Bitsketchy said...

Sorry about the break....

Of course, once i've collected the data for a few weeks i'll be able to give you a better idea. I would just say, if you are tempted to go "big" have a look at the amount of times that an individual player has returned their score. For example RvP has only scored over his current cost once - wouldn't it make sense to go for a more consistent performer?

kendo said...

I think we should also be worried about Degea making an appearance!

Tanjina hasib said...

I was in too much tension that time. Sometimes injuries make the game hard to make effective decisions.Playing fantasy football is not easy nowadays./

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